Īnalysing the tidal range (i.e., the difference between the high and low tide) is useful in gaining insights into how estuaries will respond to future SLR, since the tidal range is closely linked with mixing, circulation, sediment transport, water quality, and vegetation/ecosystem communities. As such, an accurate prediction of the tidal dynamics is required to assist managers and policy makers in developing long-term estuarine management plans, particularly under accelerating SLR. Interactions between these mechanisms typically determine the tidal dynamics (e.g., tidal range, prism, current) of an estuary and influence the processes within the estuarine system. Įstuarine tidal dynamics are complex and primarily controlled by energy drivers (i.e., tides, river inflows, waves, wind), geometry (e.g., length, width, depth, entrance condition, intertidal areas, slope), intrinsic fluid properties (e.g., density, viscosity), and other elements (e.g., roughness, protective structures). Therefore, the environmental and socio-economic impacts of SLR could be substantial, particularly to the 630 million people who live on land below the projected upper range of high tide levels. However, recent studies suggest that a global mean SLR of more than 2 m is possible by the end of the century due to uncertainties about the potential contributions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global mean sea levels are estimated to rise between 0.28 m to 1.02 m by 2100, relative to the 1995–2014 average. However, a growing body of literature indicates that estuaries are likely to be vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR), as they are situated in low-elevation coastal areas, adjacent to the open ocean. These findings provide an indication of how different estuary types may respond to estuaries and may assist estuarine managers and decision makers.Įstuarine environments provide a range of socio-economic and ecologic services, including primary production, water purification, recreational opportunities, navigational routes, and provision of nurseries for aquatic species. Variations in tidal range were more evident in converging estuaries, shallower systems, or in estuaries with strong river inflows. SLR alters the location of the points with minimum tidal range and overall tidal range patterns in an estuary. The results indicated that SLR often amplifies the tidal range of different estuary types, except for short estuaries with a low tidal range at the mouth where SLR attenuates the tides. As such, this study produced a large ensemble of estuarine hydrodynamic models (>1800) to provide a systematic understanding of how tidal range dynamics within different estuary types may change under various SLR and river inflow scenarios. ![]() While changes to the tidal range under SLR can impact estuarine sediment transport, water quality, and vegetation communities, studies on the altered tidal range under SLR are often based on case studies with outcomes applicable to a specific site. ![]() How an estuary responds to sea level rise (SLR) is complex and depends on energy drivers (e.g., tides and river inflows), estuarine geometry (e.g., length and depth), intrinsic fluid properties (e.g., density), and bed/bank roughness.
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